Cox Automotive Raised Its 2026 New-Car Sales Forecast
The latest outlook projects 16.1 million vehicle sales as wealthier buyers continue to dominate the market.
Updated on Sept. 21, 2026 in Buying/Selling
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Cox Automotive has increased its 2026 new-car sales forecast to 16.1 million vehicles, up from an earlier projection of 15.8 million. This outlook reflects shifts in buyer demographics and broader economic trends across the United States.
Why it matters
Changes in vehicle sales influence the broader economy, as consumer spending accounts for 70% of total U.S. economic activity. The forecast update highlights a growing trend where new-car buyers currently represent a significantly wealthier demographic than in years past.
The updated forecast of 16.1 million units reflects a projected 1.2% decline from 2025 totals. Notably, buyers with annual incomes over $150,000 now account for 43% of year-to-date sales, up from just 29% in 2020.
The players
Cox Automotive
An automotive industry analyst firm that provides data, software, and financial services to retailers and manufacturers.
American International Automobile Dealers Association
An industry trade group that hosts events and represents the interests of international vehicle brand dealers.
The details
Cox Automotive detailed the shift in buyer demographics during a recent industry webinar hosted by the American International Automobile Dealers Association. The updated forecast is fueled by positive economic indicators, including sustained low unemployment and a surging stock market. While wealthier buyers have increased their market share, buyers earning less than $100,000 now account for 36% of sales, down from 50% in 2020.
Timeline
2020 served as the baseline year for current buyer demographic comparisons.
U.S. new-car sales reached a total of 16.3 million units during 2025.
A previous forecast update was issued in June 2026.
Cox Automotive presented the current data on September 17, 2026.
The Home Front
This forecast reflects a widening gap in vehicle affordability, marking a departure from the more accessible market landscape seen in 2020. As new-car buyers become a wealthier demographic, household budgeting for transportation requires accounting for these shifts in market pricing and availability.
If you are planning a vehicle purchase, consider how these demographic shifts might impact the availability of entry-level models in your area. Review your household budget to see if your financing plan aligns with current market price trends before visiting local dealerships.
The takeaway
The automotive market continues to skew toward higher-income households, which may affect the long-term supply of lower-cost vehicles. Consider tracking your local inventory and price trends to determine the best timing for your next automotive purchase.
Further reading
For more on navigating the current vehicle market, visit our Buying/Selling section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Ward's Communications Online.
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